Here is a probability problem from BL’s Weekly Math Games. Normally I am not a fan of such problems, but this one seemed fairly straight-forward for a change.
“I hit the target 75% of the time. You hit the target 25% of the time. We aim at the same time, and only one bullet hits. What’s the probability it came from me?
Now as for this puzzle, it would be tempting to think that I am 3 times as good at hitting the target, but I am not!”
See Whose Bullet for a solution